Scouting the A's Rotation

Since 2005, Billy Beane, and his Oakland Athletics have been auctioning off their best pitchers each season. They’ve attempted to stay young, competitive, and fiscally responsible while playing in the monstrosity that is The Coliseum.

So, with the new season, and the Athletics’ starting rotation a bigger question mark than ever, I figured I’d take a look and see what they’re working with now. I’ll start with their two highest rated prospects, both of which were drafted out of high school, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson.

Trevor Cahill, 21, has already been compared with Brandon Webb. Cahill deals the same type of plus sinker that Webb does, an upper-80s 2-seamer that can produce tons of groundball outs. Trevor also uses a 90 mph 4-seamer that he tries to spot early in counts to get ahead. After the fastballs, which he’ll throw the majority of the time, Trevor deals a very soft changeup and two different breaking balls. His slider gets some sweeping action, while the curve looks like a plus pitch, getting good drop at just a few mph slower than the slider.

Unfortunately, Cahill has struggled mightily with his command at the big league level, issuing 15 walks in 20 innings so far. The A’s like to use the excuse that his stuff moves so much, he’s prone to bouts of wildness. However, all this crazy movement hasn’t produced many missed bats, as he’s notched only 7 strikeouts.

Trevor’s knuckle-curve, described as an “out-pitch” by A’s director of player personnel Billy Owens, has been non-existent. I’ve see him use the pitch only a handful of times, and Cahill didn’t throw one breaking ball in his last outing on 4/24.

If Cahill can improve his command and mix his pitches better, he can reach the level expected of him.

Cahill *sinker(84-89), 4-seamer(89-92), changeup(75-78), slider(82-84), curve(77-80)*

Brett Anderson, like Cahill, has made the jump from AA to the majors in 2009. He has shown good command at all levels of the minor leagues and continues to throw strikes in the Bigs.

Anderson uses a good fastball and has the confidence to command it on the inner half of the plate. He’ll then attack hitters with a sharp slurve that he can back-ankle RHs with, or sweep away from LHs. His changeup is fairly standard, but is thrown with the same plus control. Anderson mixes in a slow 12-6 curveball as his fourth pitch, usually in the first pitch of an at-bat.

Because Anderson’s stuff is not dominating he’s been banged around a bit in the major leagues, allowing 4 homeruns in 18.1 innings, while only striking out 9. Anderson seems to know what he’s doing on the mound, which will give him a good chance of succeeding. However, any loss of velocity would spell his doom.

Anderson *fastball(87-93), slider(79-85), changeup(79-84), curve(73-77)*

Of the remaining three starters, only lefthander Josh Outman has impressed me. He throws hard, dealing a fastball in the low-mid 90s. The fastball is fairly straight, but it sets up his sharp slider well. He has shown me a big hook that gets decent 11-5 movement, and a straight changeup. His minor league walk totals are fairly high, which won’t allow him to pitch deep into ballgames, but Outman might be able to make a successful move to the bullpen, where he could be a weapon.

Outman *fastball(90-96), slider(81-84), changeup(81-84), curve(75-77)*

My #4 and #5 in the rotation, Dana Eveland and Dallas Braden, are similar pitchers. They’re both left-handed, they both throw in the mid-upper 80s, they both were drafted out of college, and they both have strange first names that start with ‘D’.

I guess the similarities end there though, since Eveland relies heavily on a good slider to get outs, while Braden relies on his soft changeup.

Eveland *fastball(87-90), slider(80-84), changeup(82-84), curve(75-78)*

Braden *fastball(85-91), changeup(71-76), slider(76-83), curve(73-74)*

Unless one or two of these guys steps up bigger than I expect, this rotation isn’t going to be posting very many innings. This will put the A’s bullpen under a ton of stress, making it difficult to compete for the division.

[ Read more pitcher scouting reports at http://www.60ft6in.com/ ]

The Carlos Bros

Slide Beltran, Slide, Down, slide, SLIDE!!!!, plow him over, dive, yell, anything!!!! Jesus, forget about it. Walk back to the dugout. Yeah you were out and hopefully injured your foot or ankle on the play. You are a complete idiot. (L.Dykstra would have nailed the catcher for a move like that).

Delgado kicks first base with toe after catching a high throw a few steps before Pujols bends over to touch the bag with hand. Delgado doesn't argue... doesn't really care... looks dazed and confused... Manual i guess wasn't watching the play... (K.Hernandez would have got ejected for going face to face with the 1B umpire)

Can we find players that actually want to win... just saying, just saying.

The 2009 Starting Rotation

Here's my look at the Mets' 2009 starting rotation.... I think at this point in the careers of John Maine, Oliver Perez, and even Mike Pelfrey, us Mets fans were hoping the trio would have solidified themselves as reliable Major League starters by now. Unfortunately, all they've done is solidify the fact that we still don't know how they are going to perform on a given start.

Ideally, John Maine is a guy that can post ERAs around 3.00-3.50, with solid strikeouts, and throw 200 innings. The truth is that he has trouble missing bats and finishing off hitters. He also issues way too many walks, which especially hurts after batters spoil multiple 2-strike pitches. Maine failed to throw a full six innings in 12 of his 25 starts last season, and only had two starts where he threw at least seven innings. Maine will be 28 years old this year, and should be in his prime. I'm actually predicting an improvement for Maine. I think he'll pitch a little more like he did in 2007, and hopefully win a few more games. But coming off shoulder surgery, and posting awful spring numbers, no one really knows what he will bring this season.

Oliver Perez is almost the same pitcher that Maine is, except when Perez has his meltdowns, they are Chernobyl-like. Perez always posts low hit totals, like Maine. Perez has a good fastball, like Maine. However, Perez still has a problem with walks, like Maine. After the new coaching staff arrived last year, Perez went on a 13 game stretch where he threw at least six innings in every start. I don't know whether it was Dan Warthen's coaching, or the fact that Jerry Manuel seemed to leave Oliver in games at let him pitch himself out of trouble, when Willie would have yanked him long ago. I watched one spring appearance by Perez. His velocity seemed a bit down, again, but he looked very relaxed and threw the ball well. I don't see how anyone could predict anything better than a 4.00 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, as he'll continue to pitch inconsistently.

The Big Pelf had his "breakout" season last year. He reached the 200 inning mark and proved that he could be a horse at times, single-handedly pitching the Mets to some victories, including back to back complete games in August. Mike can pound the upper reaches of the strikezone with his 4-seam fastball, but usually relies on a very heavy, sinking 2-seamer. The downside is, that's all he has. His slider fails to get the necessary movement to get strikeouts, and his changeup actually looks like it has regressed somehow. This makes Mike predictable, everyone knows the fastball is coming, and Mike becomes hittable. Still, Pelfrey should prove to be the Mets clear #2 behind Johan Santana, and a viable second pitch could make him dominant.

Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball over the last five years, anchors the Mets staff. Despite a loss of about 3-5mph on his fastball, Johan still dominates. In a Santana start, you can almost bank on 7 innings, 7 Ks, and 2 ER or less. Johan should continue to be the ace of MLB, there is no reason to think otherwise.

The Mets will start the season with Livan Hernandez as their fifth starter. Livan may not be the best option, but the more I think about it, he's definitely not the worst. He has no velocity left, but he'll try anything to get an out. He throws sinkers, changeups, sliders, curves and will vary the velocity or tilt on any pitch. He can even hit a little, won't walk a ton of guys, and should give up some monstrous homeruns that us Mets fans can watch. If he's pitching well, he can go deep into games. I actually think Livan will stick in the rotation longer than anyone expects. He might end up in New York all year, outperforming expectations.

Here are the scouting reports for these guys, as published at 60ft6in.com:

Johan Santana, LHP
Santana brings three excellent pitches to the mound. He has a hard fastball in the low-90s which he can spot on both sides of the plate. His changeup is known as one of the best pitches in the game; a soft pitch, floating, then sinking under bats as it reaches the plate. Santana's third pitch is his slider, which gets sharp, late, sweeping action. Santana does not bother to experiment with any other offerings. In 2007, he saw a significant jump in homeruns allowed and seemed to lose a little velocity on his fastball in 2008. However, Johan has been the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons, and the Mets expect years of continued success from him.
*fastball(87-95), change(74-85), slider(80-87)

Mike Pelfrey, RHP
Pelfrey has been a strange case so far. He has a great arm and his fastball appears to be a good pitch. He throws moving 2-seamers around 92mph and can pump in a 4-seam fastball at 95mph. The 2-seamer really dives when it's thrown low and to his arm side. As a top prospect in college he was known as having a hammer of a curveball. Somewhere along the way he lost that pitch, until halfway through the 2008 season, when he started mixing a few in per game. Thank you Dan Warthen. Currently, Pelfrey's main breaking pitch is a below average slider in the mid-80s, which at times gets good late movement, but most of the time appears to merely spin towards the plate. His changeup actually looked like it regressed last year, as Mike began to slow down his motion when he delivered it. Pelfrey's current strategy is to pound his 4-seamer in for strikes to try to get ahead, then use his 2-seamer to get Ks. He mixes in his other pitches for show only.
*fastball(89-97), slider(81-88), change(80-86), curve(70-80)

John Maine, RHP
Maine changed his approach multiple times during 2008. He always uses uses good 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs to get ahead of hitters, but it's his secondary pitches that he needs to tinker with. He went from being a fastball/slider pitcher, to a fastball/changeup pitcher, and as of 7/23/08 he was finally using his entire repertoire in the same game. Maine's changeup tails considerably to his arm side, making it effective against both LHs and inside to RHs. The slider is a very tight pitch that has a tendency to lose bite when he's throwing poorly. And finally, in his 6/30 outing, Maine broke out his old curveball and kept throwing it more and more as the season wore on. Maine's pitches are difficult to hit and all this sounds great, but Maine still walks too many batters and has trouble finishing hitters off.
*fastball(87-97), slider(78-89), change(81-88), curveball(75-81)

Oliver Perez, LHP
Oliver's stuff always looks good, starting with a fastball around 90mph from a 3/4 arm angle. Perez varies the velocities on his breaking stuff alot. He uses a sweeping slider between 75-81mph to get Ks. When thrown well, the slider will either dive towards the ankles of RHs, or break away from LH's bats. Oliver has a very slow curveball that he started to use in 2007, dropping that pitch in to mix things up. A splitter is Perez' off-speed offering, a good change of pace that dives under RHs bats. Oliver rarely uses the split-joint, but he needs to show it more often to keep hitters guessing. Ultimately, Oliver's success will always depend on his suspect command.
*fastball(87-96), slider(75-83), splitter(78-85), curve(63-71)

Livan Hernandez, RHP
Livan has regressed to a low-80s fastball and slurvy breaking pitches. He starts with his fastball, a pitch that gets some sink and tail, but is very hittable. Then Livan will flip up multiple sliders in the 70s and a curveball that he varies considerably. The curve can be anywhere between 60-71mph. Livan's fourth pitch is a changeup that he'll show to LHs. He gives up tons of hits but can pitch deep into ballgames when going well.
*fastball(82-87), slider(76-78), curve(61-71), changeup(73)