Ideally, John Maine is a guy that can post ERAs around 3.00-3.50, with solid strikeouts, and throw 200 innings. The truth is that he has trouble missing bats and finishing off hitters. He also issues way too many walks, which especially hurts after batters spoil multiple 2-strike pitches. Maine failed to throw a full six innings in 12 of his 25 starts last season, and only had two starts where he threw at least seven innings. Maine will be 28 years old this year, and should be in his prime. I'm actually predicting an improvement for Maine. I think he'll pitch a little more like he did in 2007, and hopefully win a few more games. But coming off shoulder surgery, and posting awful spring numbers, no one really knows what he will bring this season.
Oliver Perez is almost the same pitcher that Maine is, except when Perez has his meltdowns, they are Chernobyl-like. Perez always posts low hit totals, like Maine. Perez has a good fastball, like Maine. However, Perez still has a problem with walks, like Maine. After the new coaching staff arrived last year, Perez went on a 13 game stretch where he threw at least six innings in every start. I don't know whether it was Dan Warthen's coaching, or the fact that Jerry Manuel seemed to leave Oliver in games at let him pitch himself out of trouble, when Willie would have yanked him long ago. I watched one spring appearance by Perez. His velocity seemed a bit down, again, but he looked very relaxed and threw the ball well. I don't see how anyone could predict anything better than a 4.00 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, as he'll continue to pitch inconsistently.
The Big Pelf had his "breakout" season last year. He reached the 200 inning mark and proved that he could be a horse at times, single-handedly pitching the Mets to some victories, including back to back complete games in August. Mike can pound the upper reaches of the strikezone with his 4-seam fastball, but usually relies on a very heavy, sinking 2-seamer. The downside is, that's all he has. His slider fails to get the necessary movement to get strikeouts, and his changeup actually looks like it has regressed somehow. This makes Mike predictable, everyone knows the fastball is coming, and Mike becomes hittable. Still, Pelfrey should prove to be the Mets clear #2 behind Johan Santana, and a viable second pitch could make him dominant.
Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball over the last five years, anchors the Mets staff. Despite a loss of about 3-5mph on his fastball, Johan still dominates. In a Santana start, you can almost bank on 7 innings, 7 Ks, and 2 ER or less. Johan should continue to be the ace of MLB, there is no reason to think otherwise.
The Mets will start the season with Livan Hernandez as their fifth starter. Livan may not be the best option, but the more I think about it, he's definitely not the worst. He has no velocity left, but he'll try anything to get an out. He throws sinkers, changeups, sliders, curves and will vary the velocity or tilt on any pitch. He can even hit a little, won't walk a ton of guys, and should give up some monstrous homeruns that us Mets fans can watch. If he's pitching well, he can go deep into games. I actually think Livan will stick in the rotation longer than anyone expects. He might end up in New York all year, outperforming expectations.Here are the scouting reports for these guys, as published at 60ft6in.com:
Johan Santana, LHP
Santana brings three excellent pitches to the mound. He has a hard fastball in the low-90s which he can spot on both sides of the plate. His changeup is known as one of the best pitches in the game; a soft pitch, floating, then sinking under bats as it reaches the plate. Santana's third pitch is his slider, which gets sharp, late, sweeping action. Santana does not bother to experiment with any other offerings. In 2007, he saw a significant jump in homeruns allowed and seemed to lose a little velocity on his fastball in 2008. However, Johan has been the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons, and the Mets expect years of continued success from him.
*fastball(87-95), change(74-85), slider(80-87)
Mike Pelfrey, RHP
Pelfrey has been a strange case so far. He has a great arm and his fastball appears to be a good pitch. He throws moving 2-seamers around 92mph and can pump in a 4-seam fastball at 95mph. The 2-seamer really dives when it's thrown low and to his arm side. As a top prospect in college he was known as having a hammer of a curveball. Somewhere along the way he lost that pitch, until halfway through the 2008 season, when he started mixing a few in per game. Thank you Dan Warthen. Currently, Pelfrey's main breaking pitch is a below average slider in the mid-80s, which at times gets good late movement, but most of the time appears to merely spin towards the plate. His changeup actually looked like it regressed last year, as Mike began to slow down his motion when he delivered it. Pelfrey's current strategy is to pound his 4-seamer in for strikes to try to get ahead, then use his 2-seamer to get Ks. He mixes in his other pitches for show only.
*fastball(89-97), slider(81-88), change(80-86), curve(70-80)
John Maine, RHP
Maine changed his approach multiple times during 2008. He always uses uses good 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs to get ahead of hitters, but it's his secondary pitches that he needs to tinker with. He went from being a fastball/slider pitcher, to a fastball/changeup pitcher, and as of 7/23/08 he was finally using his entire repertoire in the same game. Maine's changeup tails considerably to his arm side, making it effective against both LHs and inside to RHs. The slider is a very tight pitch that has a tendency to lose bite when he's throwing poorly. And finally, in his 6/30 outing, Maine broke out his old curveball and kept throwing it more and more as the season wore on. Maine's pitches are difficult to hit and all this sounds great, but Maine still walks too many batters and has trouble finishing hitters off.
*fastball(87-97), slider(78-89), change(81-88), curveball(75-81)
Oliver Perez, LHP
Oliver's stuff always looks good, starting with a fastball around 90mph from a 3/4 arm angle. Perez varies the velocities on his breaking stuff alot. He uses a sweeping slider between 75-81mph to get Ks. When thrown well, the slider will either dive towards the ankles of RHs, or break away from LH's bats. Oliver has a very slow curveball that he started to use in 2007, dropping that pitch in to mix things up. A splitter is Perez' off-speed offering, a good change of pace that dives under RHs bats. Oliver rarely uses the split-joint, but he needs to show it more often to keep hitters guessing. Ultimately, Oliver's success will always depend on his suspect command.
*fastball(87-96), slider(75-83), splitter(78-85), curve(63-71)
Livan Hernandez, RHP
Livan has regressed to a low-80s fastball and slurvy breaking pitches. He starts with his fastball, a pitch that gets some sink and tail, but is very hittable. Then Livan will flip up multiple sliders in the 70s and a curveball that he varies considerably. The curve can be anywhere between 60-71mph. Livan's fourth pitch is a changeup that he'll show to LHs. He gives up tons of hits but can pitch deep into ballgames when going well.
*fastball(82-87), slider(76-78), curve(61-71), changeup(73)
No comments:
Post a Comment